
Jakob Barnes
The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is just around the corner, and so far during this awards season, we’ve been treated to a real rollercoaster. It’s usually the case that something of a pattern emerges across other ceremonies, but not this year.
While Sinners leads the way with nominations – a record-breaking 16, no less - there is widespread belief that it will be One Battle After Another and Paul Thomas Anderson could take the top prizes on the night.
Over the last few months, though, different names have been bagging the awards in the acting categories, making it very difficult to predict. To get to the bottom of things ahead of the ceremony on Sunday, we take a look at the odds for each of the major categories and see if a pattern emerges.
Best Picture: One Battle After Another
This is the fourth time a Paul Thomas Anderson movie has been nominated for Best Picture, but it might finally be time for a win. Indeed, across the board, One Battle After Another is the overwhelming favourite to scoop the top award.
In fact, the film is so clearly out in front that you cannot avoid an odds-on bet with this one. BetFred, Sky Bet, and Paddy Power are offering 1/5, while the shortest odds are 1/3 at BoyleSports. It seems the blend of socio-political commentary, intense thrills, and moments of humour will win the day for PTA this time around.
Sinners is the closest rival in this category, but Ryan Coogler’s sumptuous, visceral vampire thriller has an average of 3/1, and it would be a real shock for it to swoop in and take the win now. Still, stranger things have happened, and the Academy voters clearly love Sinners.
There are a few anomalies in the markets, too. F1: The Movie, for example, is sitting anywhere between 100/1 and 200/1 with most bookmakers, but Betfair has shortened the odds to 7/2 for some reason. This may be due to some of the voter intentions leaking in the press, with more casual viewers opting for this very safe, easy watch.
Best Lead Actor: Michael B. Jordan
Just a month ago, it seemed Timothée Chalamet had the Best Lead Actor gong sewn up. His superb work on Marty Supreme, twinned with a very active and passionate campaign in interviews and at other awards ceremonies, had him way out in front. But that’s all changed recently, with a fascinating two-horse race emerging.
Michael B. Jordan pulled out a surprise win at the 2026 Actors Awards and is now the odds-on favourite to take home the little gold statue this weekend. Most bookmakers have the Sinners star at 8/15, while 1/2 and 4/6 are the best odds you can get on him for his blistering dual performance as Smoke and Stack.
It’s arguably the fact that Jordan plays two characters and makes them so distinctive that has now handed him the advantage. Chalamet is still second-best in the market, but it now looks like he peaked too early and has run out of steam – his comments about ballet being a dying art probably haven’t helped his cause all that much, either.
Best Lead Actress: Jessie Buckley
One category that has felt pretty much nailed on for months is the Best Lead Actress award, which Jessie Buckley would appear to have in the bag thanks to her heartwrenching, poignant portrayal of a grieving mother in Hamnet.
Despite some concerns that her part in the much-maligned Maggie Gyllenhaal movie The Bride! could cost Buckley her crown, she is still far and away the favourite with every single bookmaker. A lot of outlets, like BetMGM and BetVictor, are offering 1/100 while Star Sports is even more certain Buckley will win, with odds of 1/200.
It says it all that the best price you can get on Buckley right now is 1/40. Meanwhile, her closest rival is probably Rose Byrne, for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. She’s as short as 10/1 at Sky Bet and Paddy Power, while Emma Stone is third in the rankings, with Bet Victor offering 18/1 for her performance in Bugonia.
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson
We will almost certainly see history made in the Best Director category at the Oscars this year. Paul Thomas Anderson has never won an Academy Award before, so this could be his first, while Chloé Zhao could become the first woman to win the prize twice (she previously won for Nomadland), and Ryan Coogler could become the first Black filmmaker to take the award, which is crazy.
However, if you trust the bookmakers, it looks pretty unanimous that PTA will finally get his flowers. Bet365 have him at 1/33 while BetMGM go as low as 1/40, and the best price you can get on Thomas Anderson and One Battle After Another here is 1/16, with a few different places offering that.
Coogler is a clear second-favourite, with odds ranging between 7/1 and 10/1, while Bet365 gives Zhao the best chances of a win at 14/1. It’s interesting, really, as you’d find it hard to argue that Coogler did the best job in terms of technical filmmaking and, to me, at least, feels like the one who actually did the best directing this past year. But Thomas Anderson handled his sweeping, epic story masterfully, which counts for a lot. Plus, we can’t rule out the fact the Academy does like to give awards to people they feel are ‘owed’ an accolade.
Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn
The supporting categories may not be quite as prestigious as the leads, but these races have been the most exciting over the past few months, especially Best Supporting Actor. While Jacob Elordi won the Critics' Choice award for his role in Frankenstein, and Stellan Skarsgård won the Golden Globe for Sentimental Value, it’s Sean Penn who has now risen to the top of the rankings at the perfect moment.
Penn won at the Actors Awards, and there’s often a great deal of overlap between that awards body and the Oscars. Clearly, the bookmakers agree: He’s the odds-on favourite with every single outlet we looked at, with odds of 3/10 and 1/7 standing out. To be fair, he would be my personal pick: his performance as Colonel Lockjaw in One Battle After Another is terrifying and mesmerising in equal measure. It’s very much a role he got lost in; he’s so convincing you forget he’s even acting at times.
Meanwhile, Skarsgård could still spring a surprise, with odds of 7/2 popping up here and there. Delroy Lindo’s odds range from 13/2 to 9/1. It’s very likely both Elordi and Benicio del Toro are out of the race, with longer odds of 25/1 and 33/1, respectively.
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Madigan
One category that may finally throw up a winner from outside of the big three of One Battle After Another, Sinners, and Hamnet is Best Supporting Actress, where Amy Madigan is now a hot favourite for her performance in Weapons.
Throughout this awards season, we’ve seen Teyana Taylor pick up the Golden Globe for her fierce and formidable display in One Battle After Another and Wunmi Mosaku take the trophy at the BAFTAs for Sinners. However, after winning at the Actors Awards, it’s Madigan who looks like she might just get her nose in front now. Bookmakers like Ladbrokes have her at 10/11 while William Hill offer the longest odds at a measly 6/5.
Both Taylor and Mosaku are close behind, though, and you can get 2/1 on either of them at Sky Bet and William Hill, respectively. Could this finally be the year that the Academy recognises a horror performance and gives Madigan the ultimate reward for her unnerving depiction of the evil Aunt Gladys in Zach Cregger’s dark horror-thriller? After snubbing Toni Collette for Hereditary and Lupita Nyong’o for Us, it feels like it’s about time some justice was served.





















































