The 2026 Oscars' Biggest Surprises & Snubs
The 2026 Oscar season has been one heck of a wild ride. Sinners (2025) went into the Oscars with 16 nominations as the most Oscar-nominated film of all time, and nearly all of the acting categories had no clear winner… except for Best Actress. Seriously, was there ever any doubt that Jessie Buckley was going to win Best Actress for Hamnet (2025)?
While Jessie Buckley’s victory was a foregone conclusion, other categories were not quite as clear-cut. Those who decided to stream the Oscars on Hulu saw a healthy number of surprise victories and shocking upsets. It may be hard to distinguish between the two at times, but in my book, a surprise was when the rightful winner was able to overcome the odds to earn the recognition they deserved, while a snub was when that sadly didn’t happen.
There is always at least one or two major surprises each season, but this year’s Oscars led to more twists and turns than one would expect, with several categories truly competitive. Now that the dust has settled, let’s break down the biggest upsets and surprises of the 2026 Oscars and why people will be talking about them.
Surprise: Amy Madigan Wins Best Supporting Actress
Best Supporting Actress was a category where every competitor seemed like they had a chance to win, but Amy Madigan’s eventual victory for playing Aunt Gladys in Weapons (2025) wasn’t a guarantee. While she has won a handful of awards for her performance leading up to the Oscars, one thing that made her win questionable was that Weapons is a horror film.
Horror typically doesn’t do well at the Oscars. It seems like whenever a horror film gets nominated, it always loses to something more mainstream and safe. Case in point, Demi Moore won several awards last year for her performance in The Substance (2024) but was snubbed by the academy, which could have been a bad omen for Madigan. Not so. She was able to earn enough forward momentum after her Actor Awards and CCA wins to solidify her victory.
It’s particularly noteworthy for Madigan since it’s been 40 years since she was last nominated for Best Supporting Actress for Twice in a Lifetime (1985). While she was only in Weapons for less than 14 minutes, the least amount of screentime compared to the other nominees, her presence was impossible to ignore and was strong enough to earn her an Oscar.
Snub: ‘Avatar: Fire And Ash’ Beats ‘Sinners’ For Best Visual Effects
One would think that Avatar: Fire and Ash (2025) winning Best Visual Effects would be a foregone conclusion. After all, the previous two films both won the Oscar for it when they were nominated years ago. And yet, the technical acumen of Sinners arguably made it the more deserving film to win.
While the previous Avatar films all championed some new technology, whether it be the advancements in 3D technology in Avatar (2009) or the comprehensive and believable depictions of water in Avatar: The Way of Water (2022), Avatar: Fire and Ash doesn’t have that unique hook to elevate the medium.
Is it good-looking? Of course. As one of the most expensive movies ever made, there was little doubt that it would be visually impressive. But Sinners was able to do more with far less. It was able to convincingly depict Michael B. Jordan starring opposite himself, and the film made it feel completely natural and authentic. Add in some creepy vampiric visuals that looked strong by the standards of most horror movies, and Sinners was the more deserving victor.
Surprise: ‘The Singers’ AND ‘Two People Exchanging Saliva’ Win Best Live-Action Short Film
Ties rarely, if ever, happen at the Oscars. It’s only happened six times in the academy’s history, with the most famous tie being in 1969 when both Katharine Hepburn and Barbra Streisand won for The Lion in Winter (1968) and Funny Girl (1968), respectively. Well, now it’s happened seven times, with both The Singers (2026) and Two People Exchanging Saliva (2025) winning Best Live-Action Short Film.
After some stunned reactions, mostly from presenter Kumail Nanjiani, both teams came up to graciously accept their statues. The two films couldn’t be further apart from each other stylistically. While The Singers is a musical comedy with a lot of feel-good energy that matches the vibes and setting of Cabaret (1972), Two People Exchanging Saliva is a dystopian romance about a society where kissing is illegal, evoking the strange, absurdist humor of The Lobster (2015).
Both earned strong accolades leading up to the Oscars, and instead of one claiming victory, they were strong enough to apparently split the votes, given that the academy uses rank-choice voting to determine its winners. Hardly anyone could believe it, but surprises like that are exactly what make the Oscars so interesting.
Snub: ‘Sinners’ Beats ‘One Battle After Another’ For Best Cinematography
The story of the night will undeniably be the back-and-forth battle between Sinners and One Battle After Another (2025). Both films were considered the favorites to win multiple categories, and while Sinners would ultimately win Best Cinematography, it was an award that should have gone to One Battle After Another.
That’s not to diss the cinematography of Sinners. It deserves to be nominated solely for the “I Lied to You” sequence that effortlessly flows between all corners of the juke joint and integrates characters from multiple time periods with a fluidity and grace that should make all directors jealous. But when compared to One Battle After Another, the latter just has more striking sequences that were filmed even better.
The raid on Baktan Cross was intense in all the best ways, and the car chase at the end was not only the standout scene of the movie, but it also helped elevate One Battle After Another from being a great movie to one of Paul Thomas Andersons’ best. So while it’s easy to say that Sinners’ victory should be considered a pleasant surprise, One Battle After Another should have claimed the prize.
Surprise: Michael B. Jordan Wins Best Actor
Much like Best Supporting Actress, Best Actor was a category that was almost impossible to call. Early in the awards season, Timothée Chalamet was the favorite for Marty Supreme (2025). Then, Wagner Moura won a Golden Globe for The Secret Agent (2025). And finally, Michael B. Jordan started to gain some steam late in the season.
What most likely helped elevate Michael B. Jordan was how he played two separate characters, each with their own distinct personalities. Smoke was the more down-to-earth and pragmatic twin, while Stack was more slick and had a certain wit to him that oozed charisma. Alone, they were fine, but having Michael B. Jordan play both simultaneously, that’s a different story.
Not only that, but while Timothée Chalamet made Marty Mauser a frantic and narcissistic a**hole that was impossible to look away from the car crash that was his life, Chalamet’s actions outside of the film most likely rubbed some voters the wrong way and hurt his chances at winning. At the beginning of awards season, Michael B. Jordan was the dark horse. Now, he’s officially an Oscar winner.
Snub: Ryan Coogler Loses Best Director
In a perfect world, both Ryan Coogler and Paul Thomas Anderson would have won Best Director. After all, such an impossible scenario happened earlier in the night. But Paul Thomas Anderson ended up walking away with the win for Best Director. However, Ryan Coogler’s win would have been more historically significant.
While Paul Thomas Anderson had been nominated for Best Director three times before his win for One Battle After Another, if Coogler won, he would have been the first Black director ever to win Best Director.
Only six Black directors have ever been nominated in that category, and none of them have ever won. While some of those instances were long shots, like when Lee Daniels was nominated for Precious (2009), there was a genuine possibility Coogler could have won. After all, Sinners is the most nominated film in the academy’s history, and it had plenty of momentum going for it toward the end of the awards season that could have led it to take home the award. So while I’m sure most people are rightfully pleased that Paul Thomas Anderson won, it should be understandable why Ryan Coogler’s loss stings a bit.
