Every 2026 Robert Pattinson Movie Ranked by His Oscar Chances
With a rule change at the Academy potentially opening the floodgates to multiple nominations in a year when a whole host of Hollywood’s biggest actors have been exceptionally busy, 2027 could see a strangely lob-sided year at the Oscars.
However, if Robert Pattinson is to land one or two of those spots, which of his four 2026 roles looks the most likely to get the former Twilight star over the line?
Around a century ago, in the first few years of the Academy Awards, actors could be nominated for multiple films in the same category. Then came the 1930 ceremony, in which ten of the 14 acting nominations (this was before “Supporting” was introduced) were shared by just five stars. Off the back of that ceremony, a new rule was introduced, and for the next 96 years an actor could only be nominated once per category, with the performance that got the most votes coming out on top.
In more recent, shrewder decades, this has led to Oscar campaign teams pushing different performances into different categories so as not to split the vote — which has led to various cases (thinking Rooney Mara in Carol or Viola Davis in Fences) of what we now call “category fraud”.
As of May 1st this year, however, that’s all gone out the window again, which should hopefully create a little bit of entertaining chaos when the nominations are read out next January, not least for the fact that so many actors are having insanely productive years: chief among them Anne Hathaway (with five movies), alongside Zendaya, Sandra Hüller and our guy Robert Pattinson (with four).
With two of those films already released and the other two coming in the next few months, let’s take a closer look at which of Pattinson’s four performances currently look the most likely to get him his first Oscar nomination.
Pattinson kicked off his landmark year back in April with the release of Kristoffer Borgli’s The Drama (his follow-up to 2023's Dream Scenario), a provocatively funny rom-com that was a solid box-office hit for A24. It was also beloved by critics, especially in the U.S., which could bode well for getting it back into the conversation when all those year-end lists start to drop in the first weeks of December.
All that being said, and as much as I enjoyed Pattinson’s two-parts charming, one-part flailing performance as the fiancée of Zendaya’s almost school shooter, it just feels a touch too subtle to rise above the fray in what’s already looking like a bombastic year in the acting races.
Chances: He's for sure on the long list, but chances are slim.
It’s going to be near impossible to guess the impact of Pattinson’s performance in Dune: Part Three before we’ve seen this epic conclusion of Denis Villeneuve’s trilogy, but the vibes are certainly strong with this one.
The first two Dune movies won a combined eight Oscars in total, but not one of the 15 nominations received by those two films came in the acting categories. If Part Three delivers, that could very well change, with Pattinson’s supporting turn as Scytale perhaps the most likely contender.
It's notable that the character is a shape shifter, which should allow Pattinson to show his incredible range. Scytale is also the main antagonist, and the Academy has always enjoyed celebrating a baddie in the supporting categories — think Hans Landa in Inglorious Basterds or Aunt Gladys from Weapons last year.
Chances: Currently a dark horse in Supporting Actor but could rise quickly once the movie is released this December.
Like Dune: Part Three, we’ve yet to see Pattinson’s lead performance in Primetime but if the movie delivers on the promise of that incredible trailer, it could very well become his best shot at a nod next year. The movie, which looks like a Nightcrawler-coded biopic of the To Catch a Predator host Chris Hansen, will premiere in Venice, which could mean a lengthy standing ovation and the Volpi award for Best Actor for Pattinson, all going to plan.
Whether that translates to a nomination in January is a whole other thing, but the movie certainly has a lot going for it. Primetime is the debut narrative feature of celebrated documentary maker Lance Oppenheim (Ren Faire) and it’s arriving in the slipstream of David Osit’ Predators, one of the most talked about documentaries of last year, so there’s clearly a zeitgeisty fascination with the subject matter out there.
The question is whether Oppenheim’s movie will be a little outré for the Academy’s tastes in a year as competitive as this one.
Chances: There are a lot of big names out there, but Primetime is for sure a dark horse.
It’s probably the boring answer, but the most visible Pattinson performance — his deliciously oily, leering, meme-generating turn as Antinous in Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey — also looks the most likely to get him that first, elusive Oscar nod.
At time of writing, it looks as if Nolan’s epic will easily be the most nominated film next year, with contenders in all of the craft categories and in at least three of the acting races. Matt Damon and Anne Hathaway are both locks for Actor and Supporting Actress — and could well both win. In supporting, Pattinson looks more like a dark horse, but he’s certainly in the running.
Chances: He is in the mix, for sure.
